You’ve probably heard the headlines: mortgage rates are still high, and the market is tough. But here’s what most of those headlines miss: subtle signs of life in the housing market.
Mortgage purchase applications are up year over year, and even though rates are still above 6.5%, demand is starting to stir. It’s not a boom. It’s not a frenzy. But it is something to take note of.
What Are Mortgage Purchase Applications?
Mortgage purchase applications are exactly what they sound like: buyers applying for loans to purchase homes. It’s a leading indicator that looks 30 to 90 days ahead of actual home sales, which makes it one of the best ways to spot a market shift before it shows up in the headlines.
In the first 10 weeks of 2025, we've seen:
4 positive weeks
3 flat weeks
3 negative weeks
That might not sound groundbreaking, but most of the weekly data this year is positive, and we’re seeing year-over-year growth for the first time in a long while.
And applications go up, it's often a sign that more people are getting serious about buying.
Peak Home Sales Came Early in 2023 and 2024
In both 2023 and 2024, we saw a brief pop in home sales early in the year, followed by a slowdown. Why?
It came down to mortgage rates.
Let’s look at data from this time last year:
After mortgage rates hit over 8% in late 2023, rates dropped to around 6.63% in January 2024. That drop gave buyers a little breathing room, and activity picked up again. But once rates started rising, things slowed down.
In both 2023 and 2023, the sales peak happened early because buyers were reacting to short-term rate drops. Once those lower rates disappeared, the buyers faded, too.
Why 2025 Feels Different
Here’s what makes this year stand out: mortgage applications are rising, even though rates haven’t dropped much yet. As of mid-March 2025, the average 30-year fixed rate is around 6.7%, which is higher than many buyers would like.
But compared to the 8% rates we saw in late 2023, this feels more manageable.
“Unlike the last few years when rates have gone up and purchase application data is negative, it's still positive on the weeklies and the year over year. It was a long time ago since I've been able to say that.”
— Logan Mohtashami, HousingWire Daily Podcast
If mortgage rates dip closer to 6% and stay there, many experts believe demand could really pick up.
Final Thoughts
Purchase applications are trending up, even without drops in mortgage rates, and that means buyers are re-entering the market—especially those who’ve been waiting for any kind of shift in their favor.
