Can you believe we’re already halfway through 2025?
As we head into the second half of the year, a lot of buyers and sellers are asking the same thing: What’s next for the housing market?
While no forecast is guaranteed, economists from Fannie Mae, Zillow, NAR, MBA, and others have released updated projections on everything from home prices and mortgage rates to sales activity and market recovery.
In this post, I’ve rounded up the key takeaways from their mid-year outlooks—and added a breakdown of what they could mean for our local market here in Northeast Florida.
Home Price Forecasts
Most housing economists agree: prices will rise, but not by much. And depending on where you live, they could even decline.
Home price forecasts for 2025:
Cotality: +4.3% from April 2025 to April 2026
Fannie Mae: +4.1% in 2025
Home Price Expectations Survey (HPES): +3.3%
NAR: +3% in 2025, +4% in 2026
MBA: +1.3% in 2025, <1% in 2026
Zillow: -1.4%, an improvement from its earlier prediction of -1.9%
Notably, some overheated markets like Florida, Texas, Hawaii, and Washington D.C. are seeing declines.
Meanwhile, more affordable areas in the Midwest and Northeast are holding strong, especially suburbs near expensive cities.
In Jacksonville, home prices have remained relatively flat over the past few months, with slight year-over-year appreciation of around 2-3%. The market has cooled slightly compared to the rapid growth we saw during the peak of the pandemic boom, but it’s still stable and active.
Top-performing neighborhoods right now include:
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Riverside/Avondale – Strong demand for historic homes with charm and walkability.
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Nocatee & St. Johns – Continues to lead in newer construction and top-rated schools, especially among families.
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Murray Hill – Gaining popularity with first-time homebuyers due to affordability and character.
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Beaches (Jax Beach, Neptune, Atlantic) – High demand continues, particularly for updated homes within walking distance to the ocean.
Price points that are moving fastest:
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Homes priced between $300,000–$450,000 are still seeing the most competition.
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Entry-level homes under $300K remain in high demand, though inventory is tight.
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Luxury properties above $1M are moving slower but well-positioned listings are still drawing attention.
Existing Home Sales Outlook
Sales activity is expected to grow this year, but recovery will be gradual.
Forecasts for existing home sales in 2025:
NAR: +6% (with an 11% gain expected in 2026)
Fannie Mae: +4.4% (4.24 million home sales)
MBA: 4.3 million home sales
Zillow: +1.4% (4.12 million home sales)
Improving inventory and gradual rate relief are creating more movement in many markets.
We’re seeing a few noticeable shifts in the Jacksonville real estate market:
More Listings: Inventory has been slowly increasing, giving buyers more options than we’ve seen in the last couple of years. Sellers who were previously sitting on low-interest mortgages are beginning to re-enter the market, especially those looking to downsize, upsize, or relocate.
Longer Days on Market (DOM): On average, homes are sitting slightly longer than last year — especially if they’re overpriced or need updates. The sweet spot for well-priced, move-in ready homes is still under 30 days, but homes without strong marketing or upgrades can stretch to 45-60+ days.
Growing Buyer Interest: Despite higher interest rates sticking around, buyer demand is still strong — especially among first-time buyers, relocating families, and investors looking for rental opportunities. The seasonal summer surge is bringing more showings and stronger weekend open house traffic.
Overall, it’s a more balanced market than we’ve seen in recent years. Smart pricing, strategic staging, and strong marketing are key for sellers while buyers finally have a bit more breathing room to shop around and negotiate.
Mortgage Rate Predictions
If you're waiting for mortgage rates to drop below 5%, you’ll likely be waiting a while. But slow, steady improvement is expected.
2025 mortgage rate forecasts:
MBA: 6.6% average in Q4 2025; down to 6.3% by end of 2026
NAR: 6.4% in late 2025; 6.1% in 2026
Fannie Mae: 6.1% by year-end; 5.8% in 2026
Lawrence Yun, NAR’s Chief Economist, calls mortgage rates the “magic bullet” for unlocking market momentum. Lower rates could encourage more buyers, especially first-timers, back into the market.
What This Means for You
Here’s the bottom line for buyers, sellers, and homeowners in today’s market.
Recovery is happening, but slowly. Most forecasts point to modest gains in both home prices and sales volume through the rest of 2025, with more growth expected in 2026.
Mortgage rates are likely to stay above 6%, which means realistic budgeting will remain essential for anyone looking to purchase.
But it’s important to remember that national trends only tell part of the story. Every local market behaves differently, and what’s happening in one region may not apply in another. Even different price points within the same market can experience completely different dynamics!
If you're curious about how these trends are playing out inJacksonville Florida and the surrounding areas, let’s talk. I'm happy to break down what’s happening and how it could impact your plans to buy or sell.
